2021 Oscar Predictions

Can you believe that it has already been over a year since Parasite triumphed at the 2020 Oscars, and when Best Actor winner Joaquin Phoenix told everyone to go vegan? (Listen to the man; he knows what he’s talking about). Usually, at this time of year, the Academy Awards would have already occurred, but due to the pandemic, the entire awards season has been delayed and seems never-ending. But, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel (or, a golden statue at the end of the red carpet). The ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, April 25; the Academy claims that the Oscars will take place in-person, but it seems unlikely that everyone will be vaccinated in time, so I’m guessing it’ll be partly virtual.

The nominations will be announced tomorrow morning at 8:19 EST (three hours earlier in Los Angeles), by annoyingly beautiful married couple Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Nick Jonas. Who’s to say who will be nominated? The nominees are perhaps even more difficult to predict than ever before, and it’s tempting to predict who I want to be nominated vs. who will be nominated. I’ve used some fancy, schmancy math — based on nominees’ previous wins and total nominations thus far — as well as my knowledge of what the Academy tends to like, in order to predict the nominees. Hopefully, the nominees will be more diverse and representative of what America looks like now. 

Best Director
1. Chloe Zhao — Nomadland
2. Lee Isaac Chung — Minari
3. Aaron Sorkin — The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Emerald Fennell — Promising Young Woman
5. Regina King — One Night in Miami

David Fincher — Mank
Florian Zeller — The Father
Darius Marder — Sound of Metal
Spike Lee — Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress
1. Carey Mulligan — Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand — Nomadland
3. Viola Davis — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Andra Day — The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5. Vanessa Kirby — Pieces of a Woman

Rosamund Pike — I Care A Lot
Sidney Flanigan — Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Zendaya — Malcolm & Marie
Sophia Loren — The Life Ahead
Michelle Pfeiffer — French Exit

Best Actor
1. Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Riz Ahmed — Sound of Metal
3. Anthony Hopkins — The Father
4. Steven Yeun — Minari
5. Delroy Lindo — Da 5 Bloods

Gary Oldman — Mank
Tahar Rahim — The Mauritanian
Mads Mikkelsen — Another Round
Ben Affleck — The Way Back
Adarsh Gourav — The White Tiger

Best Supporting Actress
1. Yuh-Jung Youn — Minari
2. Olivia Colman — The Father
3. Jodie Foster — The Mauritanian
4. Amanda Seyfried — Mank
5. Maria Bakalova — Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close — Hillbilly Elegy
Helena Zengel — News of the World
Dominique Fishback — Judas & the Black Messiah
Ellen Burstyn — Pieces of a Woman

Best Supporting Actor
1. Daniel Kaluuya — Judas & the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen — The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. — One Night in Miami
4. Chadwick Boseman — Da 5 Bloods
5. Paul Raci — Sound of Metal

Alan Kim — Minari
Jared Leto — The Little Things
David Strathairn — Nomadland
Bill Murray — On the Rocks
Mark Rylance — The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
5. The Father

News of the World
The White Tiger
I’m thinking of ending things
First Cow

Best Original Screenplay
1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Mank

Judas & the Black Messiah
Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Cinematography
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Minari

Da 5 Bloods
The Midnight Sky
I’m thinking of ending things

Best Costume Design
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Emma
3. Mulan
4. Birds of Prey
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield

One Night in Miami
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story
Promising Young Woman

Best Editing
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Sound of Metal
3. Nomadland
4. The Father
5. Mank

The Invisible Man
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Promising Young Woman

Best Production Design
1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Emma
5. Tenet

The Personal History of David Copperfield
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
One Night in Miami

Best Sound
1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Soul
5. Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Invisible Man

Best Animated Feature Film
1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. The Croods: A New Age

Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
The Wolf House
Trolls: World Tour
The Willoughbys

Best International Feature Film
1. Another Round
2. Collective
3. La Llrona
4. Quo Vadis, Aida?
5. Two of Us

I’m no longer here
Night of the Kings
The Mole Agent
Dear Comrades!
A Sun

Best Original Song
1. One Night in Miami — “Speak Now”
2. The Life Ahead — “Io si (Seen)”
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 — “Hear My Voice”
4. Eurovision Song Contest — “Husavik”
5. Judas & The Black Messiah — “Fight for You”

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm — “Wuhan Flu”
All In: The Fight for Democracy — “Turntables”
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story — “Make it Work”
Sound of Metal — “Green”
Giving Voice — “Never Break”

Best Original Score
1. Soul — Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
2. Minari — Emile Mosseri
3. The Midnight Sky — Alexandre Desplat
4. News of the World — Thomas Newton Howard
5. Mank — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Tenet — Ludwig Goransson
Da 5 Bloods — Terence Blanchard
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — Daniel Pemberton

Best Make-up/Hairstyling
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Mank
4. Pinocchio
5. Birds of Prey

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story
One Night in Miami
The Little Things
The Glorias

Best Visual Effects
1. Tenet
2. Mank
3. The Midnight Sky
4. Mulan
5. Welcome to Chechnya

Birds of Prey
The One & Only Ivan

Best Documentary
1. Boys State
2. Time
3. Collective
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy

My Octopus Teacher
The Painter & the Thief
Crip Camp
The Truffle Hunters

Documentary Short
1. A Love Song for Latasha
2. Colette
3. Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa
4. Hunger Ward
5. Do Not Split

A Concerto is a Conversation
What Would Sophia Loren Do?
The Speed Cubers
Call Center Blues

Animated Short
1. Opera
2. The Snail and the Whale
3. Out
4. Burrow
5. If Anything Happens I Love You

Genius Loci
To Gerard

Best Live Action Short
1. The Human Voice
2. Two Distant Strangers
3. The Present
4. The Letter Room
5. Feeling Through

Da Pie
The Kicksled Choir
The Van
White Eye